Eredivisie · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 13:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Telstar vs Utrecht (Eredivisie, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 66% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with Telstar 35%, the draw 21% and Utrecht 44%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 69% | Yes |
| Telstar win | 35% | |
| Draw | 21% | |
| Utrecht win | 44% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 78% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 84% | |
| Goal in both halves | 65% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 78% | 81% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 39% | 44% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 84% | 85% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 59% | 56% |
| Goal in both halves | 65% | 69% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 45% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 83% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Telstar season stats · Utrecht season stats · Eredivisie table and form
League. Eredivisie has had over 2.5 goals in 64% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Telstar 7 of 10 (5 of 5 at home), Utrecht 9 of 9 (5 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 66% and 74%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 62% and 61%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 62%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 61%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.86 (Telstar) v 2.09 (Utrecht) give 76%; 30% weight: 66%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.