Eliteserien · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 16:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Start vs Lillestrom (Eliteserien, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 61% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with Start 38%, the draw 26% and Lillestrom 36%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | – |
| Both teams to score | 56% | Yes |
| Start win | 38% | Pick |
| Draw | 26% | |
| Lillestrom win | 36% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 78% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 83% | |
| Goal in both halves | 66% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start | 23 | 61% | 30% | 61% |
| Lillestrom | 23 | 52% | 30% | 43% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 78% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 42% | 43% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 83% | 82% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 58% | 52% |
| Goal in both halves | 66% | 65% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Start | 72% | 84% | 50 |
| Lillestrom | 80% | 90% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 85% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Start season stats · Lillestrom season stats · Eliteserien table and form
League. Eliteserien has had over 2.5 goals in 62% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Start 14 of 23 (5 of 11 at home), Lillestrom 12 of 23 (4 of 12 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 61% and 57%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 63% and 62%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 62%.
Head to head. 3 meetings in 3 years, 100% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 64%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.44 (Start) v 1.4 (Lillestrom) give 54%; 30% weight: 61%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.