Liga MX · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 23:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Santos Laguna vs Necaxa (Liga MX, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with Santos Laguna 59%, the draw 23% and Necaxa 19%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | – |
| Both teams to score | 58% | Yes |
| Santos Laguna win | 59% | Pick |
| Draw | 23% | |
| Necaxa win | 19% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | |
| Goal in both halves | 57% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos Laguna | 13 | 54% | 31% | 38% |
| Necaxa | 14 | 57% | 36% | 79% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | 72% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 40% | 39% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 47% | 48% |
| Goal in both halves | 57% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 42% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santos Laguna | 74% | 84% | 50 |
| Necaxa | 70% | 78% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 69% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Santos Laguna season stats · Necaxa season stats · Liga MX table and form
League. Liga MX has had over 2.5 goals in 55% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Santos Laguna 7 of 13 (2 of 7 at home), Necaxa 8 of 14 (3 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 54% and 56%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 60% and 55%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 57%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 80% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 58%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.92 (Santos Laguna) v 0.98 (Necaxa) give 55%; 30% weight: 57%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.