Premyer Liqa · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 11:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Şamaxı FK vs Neftchi Baku (Premyer Liqa, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 53% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with Şamaxı FK 21%, the draw 22% and Neftchi Baku 57%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | – |
| Both teams to score | 52% | Yes |
| Şamaxı FK win | 21% | |
| Draw | 22% | |
| Neftchi Baku win | 57% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 73% | |
| Goal in both halves | 48% |
In the app: live scores, every market including half-time goals, sortable tables and a slip you can share.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Şamaxı FK | 8 | 50% | 38% | 75% |
| Neftchi Baku | 8 | 75% | 63% | 50% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 32% | 31% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 73% | 74% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 50% | 47% |
| Goal in both halves | 48% | 49% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 47% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Şamaxı FK | 56% | 70% | 50 |
| Neftchi Baku | 68% | 72% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Şamaxı FK season stats · Neftchi Baku season stats · Premyer Liqa table and form
League. Premyer Liqa has had over 2.5 goals in 48% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Şamaxı FK 4 of 8 (2 of 2 at home), Neftchi Baku 6 of 8 (4 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 48% and 55%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 47% and 52%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 49%.
Head to head. 7 meetings in 3 years, 43% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 49%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.17 (Şamaxı FK) v 2.04 (Neftchi Baku) give 62%; 30% weight: 53%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.