Virsliga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 11:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa (Virsliga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 59% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with Rīgas FS 91%, the draw 7% and Grobiņa 2%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | – |
| Both teams to score | 48% | No |
| Rīgas FS win | 91% | Pick |
| Draw | 7% | |
| Grobiņa win | 2% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | |
| Goal in both halves | 56% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | 73% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 38% | 38% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 82% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 47% | 46% |
| Goal in both halves | 56% | 60% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 43% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 75% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Rīgas FS season stats · Grobiņa season stats · Virsliga table and form
League. Virsliga has had over 2.5 goals in 53% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Rīgas FS 19 of 33 (11 of 17 at home), Grobiņa 11 of 33 (5 of 17 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 56% and 42%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 57% and 42%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 50%.
Head to head. 11 meetings in 3 years, 82% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 52%.
Goal model. Expected goals 3.5 (Rīgas FS) v 0.46 (Grobiņa) give 76%; 30% weight: 59%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.