Bundesliga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 13:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau (Bundesliga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 60% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with Red Bull Salzburg 73%, the draw 16% and Austria Lustenau 12%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | – |
| Both teams to score | 57% | Yes |
| Red Bull Salzburg win | 73% | Pick |
| Draw | 16% | |
| Austria Lustenau win | 12% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | |
| Goal in both halves | 56% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg | 9 | 56% | 22% | 44% |
| Austria Lustenau | 9 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | 74% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 43% | 39% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 78% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 43% | 45% |
| Goal in both halves | 56% | 58% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 42% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg | 72% | 84% | 50 |
| Austria Lustenau | 66% | 78% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 76% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Red Bull Salzburg season stats · Austria Lustenau season stats · Bundesliga table and form
League. Bundesliga has had over 2.5 goals in 53% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Red Bull Salzburg 5 of 9 (4 of 5 at home), Austria Lustenau 6 of 9 (3 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 54% and 57%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 57% and 53%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 55%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.71 (Red Bull Salzburg) v 1.02 (Austria Lustenau) give 72%; 30% weight: 60%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.