NWSL (W) · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 22:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Racing Louisville W vs Kansas City W (NWSL (W), Sunday, 1 November 2026) 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with Racing Louisville W 29%, the draw 28% and Kansas City W 43%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | – |
| Both teams to score | 55% | Yes |
| Racing Louisville W win | 29% | |
| Draw | 28% | |
| Kansas City W win | 43% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 82% | |
| Goal in both halves | 60% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Louisville W | 28 | 68% | 36% | 71% |
| Kansas City W | 28 | 71% | 29% | 61% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 38% | 38% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 82% | 78% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 45% | 41% |
| Goal in both halves | 60% | 53% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Louisville W | 72% | 94% | 50 |
| Kansas City W | 74% | 84% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 74% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Racing Louisville W season stats · Kansas City W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form
League. NWSL (W) has had over 2.5 goals in 49% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Racing Louisville W 19 of 28 (8 of 14 at home), Kansas City W 20 of 28 (9 of 14 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 59% and 61%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 55% and 55%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 54%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 60% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 54%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.05 (Racing Louisville W) v 1.35 (Kansas City W) give 43%; 30% weight: 51%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.