Primera Division · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 13:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Progreso vs Defensor Sporting (Primera Division, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 43% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with Progreso 32%, the draw 29% and Defensor Sporting 39%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | – |
| Both teams to score | 52% | Yes |
| Progreso win | 32% | |
| Draw | 29% | Pick |
| Defensor Sporting win | 39% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 63% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | |
| Goal in both halves | 46% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progreso | 33 | 42% | 15% | 45% |
| Defensor Sporting | 33 | 33% | 15% | 55% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 63% | 63% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 26% | 26% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | 74% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 37% | 42% |
| Goal in both halves | 46% | 47% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 46% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Progreso | 70% | 82% | 50 |
| Defensor Sporting | 56% | 70% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Progreso season stats · Defensor Sporting season stats · Primera Division table and form
League. Primera Division has had over 2.5 goals in 43% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Progreso 14 of 33 (8 of 16 at home), Defensor Sporting 11 of 33 (4 of 16 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 43% and 37%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 43% and 39%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 41%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 42%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.05 (Progreso) v 1.21 (Defensor Sporting) give 39%; 30% weight: 41%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 43%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.