K League 1 · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 05:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC (K League 1, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 42% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with Pohang Steelers 29%, the draw 33% and Jeju United FC 38%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | No |
| Pohang Steelers win | 29% | |
| Draw | 33% | |
| Jeju United FC win | 38% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 60% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | |
| Goal in both halves | 43% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pohang Steelers | 33 | 36% | 15% | 36% |
| Jeju United FC | 33 | 45% | 18% | 58% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 60% | 63% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 27% | 29% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 78% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 41% | 47% |
| Goal in both halves | 43% | 50% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 47% | 2nd 48% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pohang Steelers | 56% | 64% | 50 |
| Jeju United FC | 56% | 78% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 62% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Pohang Steelers season stats · Jeju United FC season stats · K League 1 table and form
League. K League 1 has had over 2.5 goals in 48% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Pohang Steelers 12 of 33 (1 of 14 at home), Jeju United FC 15 of 33 (8 of 16 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 41% and 46%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 41% and 46%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 45%.
Head to head. 9 meetings in 3 years, 44% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 45%.
Goal model. Expected goals 0.84 (Pohang Steelers) v 1.01 (Jeju United FC) give 28%; 30% weight: 40%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 42%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.