Super League · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 17:00 UK time
CompactStats rates PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis (Super League, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 53% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with PAOK 79%, the draw 15% and Asteras Tripolis 6%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | No |
| PAOK win | 79% | Pick |
| Draw | 15% | |
| Asteras Tripolis win | 6% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | |
| Goal in both halves | 58% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK | 7 | 86% | 57% | 71% |
| Asteras Tripolis | 7 | 57% | 43% | 71% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | 71% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 35% | 33% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 45% | 43% |
| Goal in both halves | 58% | 55% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 42% | 2nd 42% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK | 68% | 78% | 50 |
| Asteras Tripolis | 80% | 72% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 73% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: PAOK season stats · Asteras Tripolis season stats · Super League table and form
League. Super League has had over 2.5 goals in 49% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. PAOK 6 of 7 (3 of 4 at home), Asteras Tripolis 4 of 7 (3 of 3 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 58% and 51%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 54% and 49%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 51%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 60% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 51%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.46 (PAOK) v 0.54 (Asteras Tripolis) give 58%; 30% weight: 53%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.