Super League · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 17:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC (Super League, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 50% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with Panathinaikos 45%, the draw 26% and AEK Athens FC 28%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | Yes |
| Panathinaikos win | 45% | Pick |
| Draw | 26% | |
| AEK Athens FC win | 28% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | |
| Goal in both halves | 52% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 7 | 57% | 43% | 43% |
| AEK Athens FC | 6 | 67% | 33% | 50% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | 71% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 33% | 33% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 48% | 43% |
| Goal in both halves | 52% | 55% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 42% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 62% | 74% | 50 |
| AEK Athens FC | 72% | 76% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 73% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Panathinaikos season stats · AEK Athens FC season stats · Super League table and form
League. Super League has had over 2.5 goals in 49% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Panathinaikos 4 of 7 (4 of 4 at home), AEK Athens FC 4 of 6 (1 of 3 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 51% and 53%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 50% and 46%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 48%.
Head to head. 11 meetings in 3 years, 73% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 50%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.51 (Panathinaikos) v 1.14 (AEK Athens FC) give 49%; 30% weight: 50%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.