Liga I · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 13:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Oţelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (Liga I, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with Oţelul 56%, the draw 26% and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 19%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | No |
| Oţelul win | 56% | Pick |
| Draw | 26% | |
| Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win | 19% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | |
| Goal in both halves | 50% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oţelul | 13 | 46% | 31% | 62% |
| Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 12 | 17% | 17% | 33% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | 67% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 34% | 33% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 40% | 44% |
| Goal in both halves | 50% | 51% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oţelul | 72% | 78% | 50 |
| Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 70% | 64% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Oţelul season stats · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe season stats · Liga I table and form
League. Liga I has had over 2.5 goals in 47% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Oţelul 6 of 13 (2 of 7 at home), Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2 of 12 (1 of 7 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 47% and 37%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 48% and 37%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 43%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 44%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.61 (Oţelul) v 0.81 (Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe) give 44%; 30% weight: 44%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 45%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.