First Division · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 17:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Omonia Aradippou vs Apoel Nicosia (First Division, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 50% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with Omonia Aradippou 28%, the draw 27% and Apoel Nicosia 45%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | – |
| Both teams to score | 48% | No |
| Omonia Aradippou win | 28% | |
| Draw | 27% | |
| Apoel Nicosia win | 45% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 81% | |
| Goal in both halves | 55% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omonia Aradippou | 6 | 17% | 0% | 50% |
| Apoel Nicosia | 6 | 83% | 50% | 67% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | 73% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 27% | 29% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 81% | 80% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 46% | 47% |
| Goal in both halves | 55% | 58% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 47% | 2nd 48% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omonia Aradippou | 58% | 82% | 50 |
| Apoel Nicosia | 70% | 84% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 71% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Omonia Aradippou season stats · Apoel Nicosia season stats · First Division table and form
League. First Division has had over 2.5 goals in 50% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Omonia Aradippou 1 of 6 (1 of 3 at home), Apoel Nicosia 5 of 6 (3 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 43% and 57%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 44% and 51%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 48%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 75% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 49%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.11 (Omonia Aradippou) v 1.49 (Apoel Nicosia) give 48%; 30% weight: 49%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 50%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.