Serie B · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 21:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Novorizontino vs Operario-PR (Serie B, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 49% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with Novorizontino 60%, the draw 24% and Operario-PR 16%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | No |
| Novorizontino win | 60% | Pick |
| Draw | 24% | |
| Operario-PR win | 16% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | |
| Goal in both halves | 53% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino | 47 | 57% | 26% | 51% |
| Operario-PR | 35 | 60% | 20% | 51% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 32% | 28% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | 74% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 37% | 36% |
| Goal in both halves | 53% | 48% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 42% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino | 70% | 78% | 50 |
| Operario-PR | 72% | 70% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Novorizontino season stats · Operario-PR season stats · Serie B table and form
League. Serie B has had over 2.5 goals in 41% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Novorizontino 27 of 47 (15 of 24 at home), Operario-PR 21 of 35 (11 of 17 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 52% and 52%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 52% and 51%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 50%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 40% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 49%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.76 (Novorizontino) v 0.78 (Operario-PR) give 47%; 30% weight: 48%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 49%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.