NWSL (W) · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 22:00 UK time
CompactStats rates North Carolina Courage W vs Denver Summit W (NWSL (W), Sunday, 1 November 2026) 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with North Carolina Courage W 45%, the draw 24% and Denver Summit W 31%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | – |
| Both teams to score | 59% | Yes |
| North Carolina Courage W win | 45% | Pick |
| Draw | 24% | |
| Denver Summit W win | 31% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | |
| Goal in both halves | 57% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Courage W | 29 | 72% | 38% | 59% |
| Denver Summit W | 28 | 64% | 36% | 64% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 41% | 38% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | 78% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 47% | 41% |
| Goal in both halves | 57% | 53% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Courage W | 70% | 86% | 50 |
| Denver Summit W | 71% | 82% | 28 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 74% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: North Carolina Courage W season stats · Denver Summit W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form
League. NWSL (W) has had over 2.5 goals in 49% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. North Carolina Courage W 21 of 29 (12 of 14 at home), Denver Summit W 18 of 28 (7 of 14 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 62% and 57%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 59% and 57%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 56%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.79 (North Carolina Courage W) v 1.45 (Denver Summit W) give 63%; 30% weight: 58%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.