HNL · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 17:00 UK time
CompactStats rates NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Osijek (HNL, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 48%, the draw 26% and NK Osijek 27%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | – |
| Both teams to score | 53% | Yes |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win | 48% | Pick |
| Draw | 26% | |
| NK Osijek win | 27% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 76% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 62% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 11 | 45% | 36% | 55% |
| NK Osijek | 11 | 55% | 45% | 45% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 76% | 76% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 35% | 39% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 36% | 41% |
| Goal in both halves | 62% | 61% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 40% | 2nd 38% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 82% | 84% | 50 |
| NK Osijek | 68% | 70% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 73% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb season stats · NK Osijek season stats · HNL table and form
League. HNL has had over 2.5 goals in 50% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 5 of 11 (1 of 4 at home), NK Osijek 6 of 11 (3 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 49% and 52%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 47% and 43%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 46%.
Head to head. 12 meetings in 3 years, 33% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 45%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.59 (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) v 1.13 (NK Osijek) give 51%; 30% weight: 47%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 48%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.