Liga Profesional · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 21:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Newells Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe (Liga Profesional, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 42% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with Newells Old Boys 42%, the draw 28% and Union Santa Fe 30%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | – |
| Both teams to score | 50% | No |
| Newells Old Boys win | 42% | Pick |
| Draw | 28% | |
| Union Santa Fe win | 30% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 60% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 73% | |
| Goal in both halves | 47% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newells Old Boys | 29 | 34% | 17% | 52% |
| Union Santa Fe | 31 | 58% | 29% | 61% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 60% | 60% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 22% | 21% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 73% | 71% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 45% | 34% |
| Goal in both halves | 47% | 44% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newells Old Boys | 58% | 78% | 50 |
| Union Santa Fe | 64% | 76% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 61% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Newells Old Boys season stats · Union Santa Fe season stats · Liga Profesional table and form
League. Liga Profesional has had over 2.5 goals in 35% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Newells Old Boys 10 of 29 (4 of 15 at home), Union Santa Fe 18 of 31 (11 of 17 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 35% and 48%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 34% and 45%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 39%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 25% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 38%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.35 (Newells Old Boys) v 1.1 (Union Santa Fe) give 44%; 30% weight: 40%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 42%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.