USL Championship · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 23:00 UK time
CompactStats rates New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising (USL Championship, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with New Mexico United 49%, the draw 24% and Phoenix Rising 27%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | – |
| Both teams to score | 57% | Yes |
| New Mexico United win | 49% | Pick |
| Draw | 24% | |
| Phoenix Rising win | 27% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | |
| Goal in both halves | 53% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico United | 30 | 53% | 30% | 53% |
| Phoenix Rising | 30 | 60% | 33% | 67% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | 68% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 36% | 33% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 48% | 45% |
| Goal in both halves | 53% | 54% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico United | 60% | 80% | 50 |
| Phoenix Rising | 72% | 78% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 66% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: New Mexico United season stats · Phoenix Rising season stats · USL Championship table and form
League. USL Championship has had over 2.5 goals in 50% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. New Mexico United 16 of 30 (10 of 15 at home), Phoenix Rising 18 of 30 (8 of 15 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 52% and 55%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 53% and 54%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 53%.
Head to head. 7 meetings in 3 years, 71% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 54%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.78 (New Mexico United) v 1.26 (Phoenix Rising) give 59%; 30% weight: 55%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.