MLS · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 21:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls (MLS, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 59% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with Nashville SC 66%, the draw 20% and New York Red Bulls 15%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | – |
| Both teams to score | 56% | Yes |
| Nashville SC win | 66% | Pick |
| Draw | 20% | |
| New York Red Bulls win | 15% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 77% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 81% | |
| Goal in both halves | 64% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 31 | 58% | 42% | 45% |
| New York Red Bulls | 30 | 57% | 37% | 60% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 77% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 43% | 41% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 81% | 81% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 48% | 51% |
| Goal in both halves | 64% | 64% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 68% | 82% | 50 |
| New York Red Bulls | 84% | 80% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 78% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Nashville SC season stats · New York Red Bulls season stats · MLS table and form
League. MLS has had over 2.5 goals in 61% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Nashville SC 18 of 31 (12 of 15 at home), New York Red Bulls 17 of 30 (9 of 15 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 59% and 59%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 61% and 58%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 60%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 20% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 58%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.22 (Nashville SC) v 0.95 (New York Red Bulls) give 61%; 30% weight: 59%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.