Super Liga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 17:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Mladost Lucani vs Radnik Surdulica (Super Liga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with Mladost Lucani 48%, the draw 32% and Radnik Surdulica 20%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | – |
| Both teams to score | 47% | No |
| Mladost Lucani win | 48% | Pick |
| Draw | 32% | |
| Radnik Surdulica win | 20% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 70% | |
| Goal in both halves | 51% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mladost Lucani | 12 | 42% | 33% | 42% |
| Radnik Surdulica | 13 | 46% | 23% | 54% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | 71% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 30% | 33% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 70% | 72% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 40% | 42% |
| Goal in both halves | 51% | 54% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 41% | 2nd 40% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mladost Lucani | 70% | 62% | 50 |
| Radnik Surdulica | 66% | 66% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 74% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Mladost Lucani season stats · Radnik Surdulica season stats · Super Liga table and form
League. Super Liga has had over 2.5 goals in 50% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Mladost Lucani 5 of 12 (2 of 5 at home), Radnik Surdulica 6 of 13 (2 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 47% and 48%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 46% and 46%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 47%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 0% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 44%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.16 (Mladost Lucani) v 0.64 (Radnik Surdulica) give 27%; 30% weight: 39%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 41%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.