Ligue 1 · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 19:45 UK time
CompactStats rates Marseille vs Toulouse (Ligue 1, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 61% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with Marseille 45%, the draw 22% and Toulouse 33%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | – |
| Both teams to score | 59% | Yes |
| Marseille win | 45% | Pick |
| Draw | 22% | |
| Toulouse win | 33% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | |
| Goal in both halves | 56% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 34% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 55% | 47% |
| Goal in both halves | 56% | 57% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 47% | 2nd 47% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 72% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Marseille season stats · Toulouse season stats · Ligue 1 table and form
League. Ligue 1 has had over 2.5 goals in 54% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Marseille 4 of 7 (3 of 3 at home), Toulouse 5 of 7 (4 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 55% and 58%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 58% and 55%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 56%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 80% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 57%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.99 (Marseille) v 1.68 (Toulouse) give 71%; 30% weight: 61%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.