Primeira Liga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 18:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Maritimo vs Santa Clara (Primeira Liga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 47% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with Maritimo 27%, the draw 29% and Santa Clara 44%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | No |
| Maritimo win | 27% | |
| Draw | 29% | |
| Santa Clara win | 44% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 66% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | |
| Goal in both halves | 50% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 9 | 78% | 33% | 67% |
| Santa Clara | 8 | 38% | 25% | 38% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 66% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 35% | 36% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 36% | 43% |
| Goal in both halves | 50% | 55% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 66% | 88% | 50 |
| Santa Clara | 58% | 66% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 73% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Maritimo season stats · Santa Clara season stats · Primeira Liga table and form
League. Primeira Liga has had over 2.5 goals in 54% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Maritimo 7 of 9 (3 of 4 at home), Santa Clara 3 of 8 (1 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 60% and 50%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 49% and 46%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 49%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 49%.
Goal model. Expected goals 0.94 (Maritimo) v 1.3 (Santa Clara) give 39%; 30% weight: 46%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 47%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.