PSL · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 13:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City (PSL, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 41% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with Mamelodi Sundowns 74%, the draw 17% and Durban City 9%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | – |
| Both teams to score | 45% | No |
| Mamelodi Sundowns win | 74% | Pick |
| Draw | 17% | |
| Durban City win | 9% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 60% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 71% | |
| Goal in both halves | 45% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamelodi Sundowns | 9 | 56% | 33% | 67% |
| Durban City | 8 | 13% | 0% | 38% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 60% | 59% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 25% | 23% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 71% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 32% | 30% |
| Goal in both halves | 45% | 43% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 42% | 2nd 40% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mamelodi Sundowns | 72% | 78% | 50 |
| Durban City | 50% | 66% | 38 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 55% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Mamelodi Sundowns season stats · Durban City season stats · PSL table and form
League. PSL has had over 2.5 goals in 30% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Mamelodi Sundowns 5 of 9 (2 of 4 at home), Durban City 1 of 8 (0 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 37% and 26%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 34% and 24%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 30%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 31%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.32 (Mamelodi Sundowns) v 0.69 (Durban City) give 58%; 30% weight: 39%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 41%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.