Liga 2 · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 14:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense (Liga 2, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with Lusitânia Lourosa 33%, the draw 30% and Farense 37%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | No |
| Lusitânia Lourosa win | 33% | |
| Draw | 30% | Pick |
| Farense win | 37% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 53% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 43% | 14% | 57% |
| Farense | 7 | 71% | 29% | 71% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 27% | 27% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 47% | 42% |
| Goal in both halves | 53% | 51% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lusitânia Lourosa | 70% | 82% | 50 |
| Farense | 58% | 76% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 76% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Lusitânia Lourosa season stats · Farense season stats · Liga 2 table and form
League. Liga 2 has had over 2.5 goals in 45% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Lusitânia Lourosa 3 of 7 (2 of 4 at home), Farense 5 of 7 (2 of 3 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 45% and 51%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 51% and 40%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 45%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 100% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 48%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.03 (Lusitânia Lourosa) v 1.12 (Farense) give 37%; 30% weight: 45%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 46%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.