Serie B · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 19:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Londrina vs America Mineiro (Serie B, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 45% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with Londrina 51%, the draw 27% and America Mineiro 22%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | – |
| Both teams to score | 48% | No |
| Londrina win | 51% | Pick |
| Draw | 27% | |
| America Mineiro win | 22% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 73% | |
| Goal in both halves | 47% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Londrina | 34 | 62% | 29% | 53% |
| America Mineiro | 44 | 41% | 9% | 43% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 27% | 28% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 73% | 74% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 39% | 36% |
| Goal in both halves | 47% | 48% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 42% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Londrina | 70% | 68% | 50 |
| America Mineiro | 58% | 76% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Londrina season stats · America Mineiro season stats · Serie B table and form
League. Serie B has had over 2.5 goals in 41% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Londrina 21 of 34 (9 of 17 at home), America Mineiro 18 of 44 (9 of 22 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 53% and 41%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 50% and 41%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 45%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.46 (Londrina) v 0.85 (America Mineiro) give 41%; 30% weight: 43%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 45%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.