Premier League · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 16:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Liverpool vs Arsenal (Premier League, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with Liverpool 26%, the draw 28% and Arsenal 46%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | – |
| Both teams to score | 53% | Yes |
| Liverpool win | 26% | |
| Draw | 28% | |
| Arsenal win | 46% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 81% | |
| Goal in both halves | 56% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 34% | 33% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 81% | 80% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 52% | 48% |
| Goal in both halves | 56% | 57% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 47% | 2nd 46% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 62% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Liverpool season stats · Arsenal season stats · Premier League table and form
League. Premier League has had over 2.5 goals in 55% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Liverpool 4 of 7 (2 of 3 at home), Arsenal 4 of 8 (1 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 55% and 53%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 57% and 54%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 55%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 55%.
Goal model. Expected goals 0.94 (Liverpool) v 1.36 (Arsenal) give 40%; 30% weight: 51%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.