USL Championship · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 19:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Lexington vs Colorado Springs (USL Championship, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with Lexington 56%, the draw 23% and Colorado Springs 21%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | – |
| Both teams to score | 55% | Yes |
| Lexington win | 56% | Pick |
| Draw | 23% | |
| Colorado Springs win | 21% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | |
| Goal in both halves | 55% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington | 30 | 60% | 47% | 57% |
| Colorado Springs | 30 | 47% | 33% | 53% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | 68% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 32% | 33% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 50% | 45% |
| Goal in both halves | 55% | 54% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington | 72% | 82% | 50 |
| Colorado Springs | 58% | 80% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 66% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Lexington season stats · Colorado Springs season stats · USL Championship table and form
League. USL Championship has had over 2.5 goals in 50% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Lexington 18 of 30 (8 of 15 at home), Colorado Springs 14 of 30 (6 of 15 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 55% and 48%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 54% and 49%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 51%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 51%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.85 (Lexington) v 1.04 (Colorado Springs) give 55%; 30% weight: 52%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 53%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.