Serie A · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 17:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Lecce vs Genoa (Serie A, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with Lecce 32%, the draw 29% and Genoa 39%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | – |
| Both teams to score | 48% | No |
| Lecce win | 32% | |
| Draw | 29% | |
| Genoa win | 39% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 66% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | |
| Goal in both halves | 53% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 66% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 29% | 29% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 78% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 40% | 42% |
| Goal in both halves | 53% | 52% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 46% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Lecce season stats · Genoa season stats · Serie A table and form
League. Serie A has had over 2.5 goals in 48% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Lecce 5 of 7 (3 of 3 at home), Genoa 3 of 7 (1 of 3 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 53% and 47%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 44% and 50%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 47%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 40% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 47%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.06 (Lecce) v 1.2 (Genoa) give 39%; 30% weight: 44%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 46%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.