Serie A · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 14:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Lazio vs Cagliari (Serie A, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with Lazio 53%, the draw 24% and Cagliari 23%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | – |
| Both teams to score | 50% | No |
| Lazio win | 53% | Pick |
| Draw | 24% | |
| Cagliari win | 23% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | |
| Goal in both halves | 49% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 26% | 29% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 78% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 39% | 42% |
| Goal in both halves | 49% | 53% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 46% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 69% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Lazio season stats · Cagliari season stats · Serie A table and form
League. Serie A has had over 2.5 goals in 48% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Lazio 4 of 7 (2 of 3 at home), Cagliari 2 of 7 (2 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 50% and 44%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 41% and 48%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 45%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 46%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.75 (Lazio) v 1.07 (Cagliari) give 54%; 30% weight: 48%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 49%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.