Super League · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 15:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Lausanne vs FC Thun (Super League, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 72% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with Lausanne 24%, the draw 20% and FC Thun 57%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 67% | – |
| Lausanne win | 24% | |
| Draw | 20% | |
| FC Thun win | 57% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 83% | |
| Goal in both halves | 60% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | 76% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 44% | 43% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 83% | 85% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 52% | 57% |
| Goal in both halves | 60% | 66% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 47% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 82% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Lausanne season stats · FC Thun season stats · Super League table and form
League. Super League has had over 2.5 goals in 68% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Lausanne 4 of 10 (3 of 5 at home), FC Thun 8 of 10 (6 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 60% and 72%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 68% and 71%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 69%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 75% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 70%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.56 (Lausanne) v 2.45 (FC Thun) give 76%; 30% weight: 72%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.