Liga Profesional · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 23:45 UK time
CompactStats rates Lanus vs Gimnasia M. (Liga Profesional, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 37% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with Lanus 57%, the draw 27% and Gimnasia M. 16%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | – |
| Both teams to score | 43% | No |
| Lanus win | 57% | Pick |
| Draw | 27% | |
| Gimnasia M. win | 16% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 57% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 73% | |
| Goal in both halves | 42% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lanus | 31 | 35% | 13% | 35% |
| Gimnasia M. | 30 | 40% | 20% | 40% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 57% | 60% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 22% | 21% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 73% | 71% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 33% | 34% |
| Goal in both halves | 42% | 44% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lanus | 48% | 84% | 50 |
| Gimnasia M. | 58% | 74% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 61% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Lanus season stats · Gimnasia M. season stats · Liga Profesional table and form
League. Liga Profesional has had over 2.5 goals in 35% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Lanus 11 of 31 (5 of 15 at home), Gimnasia M. 12 of 30 (6 of 15 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 35% and 38%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 34% and 33%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 34%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.48 (Lanus) v 0.63 (Gimnasia M.) give 35%; 30% weight: 34%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 37%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.