Süper Lig · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 16:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş (Süper Lig, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with Kasımpaşa 35%, the draw 28% and Beşiktaş 37%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | – |
| Both teams to score | 55% | Yes |
| Kasımpaşa win | 35% | |
| Draw | 28% | |
| Beşiktaş win | 37% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | |
| Goal in both halves | 57% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 37% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 80% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 45% | 48% |
| Goal in both halves | 57% | 57% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 46% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 76% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Kasımpaşa season stats · Beşiktaş season stats · Süper Lig table and form
League. Süper Lig has had over 2.5 goals in 54% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Kasımpaşa 4 of 9 (2 of 4 at home), Beşiktaş 5 of 8 (2 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 51% and 56%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 49% and 56%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 53%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 67% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 54%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.23 (Kasımpaşa) v 1.28 (Beşiktaş) give 46%; 30% weight: 51%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 52%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.