Premyer Liqa · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 13:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Kapaz vs Imisli FK (Premyer Liqa, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 43% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with Kapaz 33%, the draw 31% and Imisli FK 36%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | – |
| Both teams to score | 45% | No |
| Kapaz win | 33% | |
| Draw | 31% | Pick |
| Imisli FK win | 36% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 63% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | |
| Goal in both halves | 46% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 63% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 30% | 31% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | 74% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 40% | 47% |
| Goal in both halves | 46% | 49% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 47% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 65% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Kapaz season stats · Imisli FK season stats · Premyer Liqa table and form
League. Premyer Liqa has had over 2.5 goals in 48% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Kapaz 2 of 8 (1 of 5 at home), Imisli FK 4 of 8 (3 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 42% and 49%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 46% and 42%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 45%.
Head to head. 3 meetings in 3 years, 33% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 44%.
Goal model. Expected goals 0.98 (Kapaz) v 1.05 (Imisli FK) give 33%; 30% weight: 41%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 43%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.