Serie A · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 19:45 UK time
CompactStats rates Juventus vs Napoli (Serie A, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with Juventus 43%, the draw 28% and Napoli 29%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | No |
| Juventus win | 43% | Pick |
| Draw | 28% | |
| Napoli win | 29% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | |
| Goal in both halves | 56% |
In the app: live scores, every market including half-time goals, sortable tables and a slip you can share.
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 28% | 29% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 78% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 46% | 43% |
| Goal in both halves | 56% | 52% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 46% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Juventus season stats · Napoli season stats · Serie A table and form
League. Serie A has had over 2.5 goals in 48% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Juventus 2 of 7 (1 of 4 at home), Napoli 4 of 8 (1 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 44% and 49%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 44% and 50%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 47%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 67% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 48%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.36 (Juventus) v 1.06 (Napoli) give 44%; 30% weight: 47%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 48%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.