1. Lig · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 13:00 UK time
CompactStats rates İstanbulspor vs Mardin 1969 (1. Lig, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 54% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with İstanbulspor 38%, the draw 26% and Mardin 1969 37%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | – |
| Both teams to score | 52% | Yes |
| İstanbulspor win | 38% | Pick |
| Draw | 26% | |
| Mardin 1969 win | 37% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 73% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | |
| Goal in both halves | 60% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| İstanbulspor | 11 | 64% | 45% | 45% |
| Mardin 1969 | 11 | 36% | 18% | 36% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 73% | 71% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 39% | 37% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 80% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 47% | 50% |
| Goal in both halves | 60% | 58% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| İstanbulspor | 80% | 76% | 50 |
| Mardin 1969 | 72% | 76% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 71% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: İstanbulspor season stats · Mardin 1969 season stats · 1. Lig table and form
League. 1. Lig has had over 2.5 goals in 52% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. İstanbulspor 7 of 11 (2 of 5 at home), Mardin 1969 4 of 11 (4 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 56% and 47%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 55% and 53%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 54%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.45 (İstanbulspor) v 1.42 (Mardin 1969) give 55%; 30% weight: 54%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.