Primera A · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 23:10 UK time
CompactStats rates Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar (Primera A, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with Independiente Medellin 52%, the draw 27% and Alianza Valledupar 21%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | Yes |
| Independiente Medellin win | 52% | Pick |
| Draw | 27% | |
| Alianza Valledupar win | 21% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | |
| Goal in both halves | 52% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Medellin | 33 | 61% | 27% | 64% |
| Alianza Valledupar | 33 | 45% | 24% | 52% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | 67% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 34% | 32% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | 73% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 37% | 37% |
| Goal in both halves | 52% | 50% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 42% | 2nd 40% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Medellin | 70% | 80% | 50 |
| Alianza Valledupar | 66% | 74% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 68% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Independiente Medellin season stats · Alianza Valledupar season stats · Primera A table and form
League. Primera A has had over 2.5 goals in 45% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Independiente Medellin 20 of 33 (10 of 18 at home), Alianza Valledupar 15 of 33 (8 of 16 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 54% and 45%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 52% and 45%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 48%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 0% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 45%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.49 (Independiente Medellin) v 0.83 (Alianza Valledupar) give 41%; 30% weight: 44%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 46%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.