NWSL (W) · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 22:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Houston Dash W vs Portland Thorns W (NWSL (W), Sunday, 1 November 2026) 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with Houston Dash W 40%, the draw 24% and Portland Thorns W 36%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | – |
| Both teams to score | 58% | Yes |
| Houston Dash W win | 40% | Pick |
| Draw | 24% | |
| Portland Thorns W win | 36% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | |
| Goal in both halves | 57% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dash W | 29 | 55% | 31% | 55% |
| Portland Thorns W | 29 | 55% | 41% | 62% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 39% | 38% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | 78% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 40% | 41% |
| Goal in both halves | 57% | 53% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dash W | 70% | 86% | 50 |
| Portland Thorns W | 78% | 80% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 74% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Houston Dash W season stats · Portland Thorns W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form
League. NWSL (W) has had over 2.5 goals in 49% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Houston Dash W 16 of 29 (8 of 14 at home), Portland Thorns W 16 of 29 (10 of 14 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 52% and 52%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 51% and 50%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 50%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 40% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 50%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.64 (Houston Dash W) v 1.56 (Portland Thorns W) give 62%; 30% weight: 53%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 54%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.