Liga MX · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 01:07 UK time. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Liga MX average is 55%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Guadalajara Chivas at 60%, the draw at 23% and Atlante FC at 17%, from expected goals of 1.82 and 0.84.
The league sets the starting point. Liga MX has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Guadalajara Chivas have 4 in 13 this season (2 of 7 at home), Atlante FC 5 in 13 (2 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.82 for Guadalajara Chivas and 0.84 for Atlante FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | 13 | 31% | 15% | 46% |
| Atlante FC | 13 | 38% | 15% | 62% |
Our numbers give this match a 71% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 39% of two or more. The Liga MX rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 40% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 116 games). After the break: 78% for a goal and 46% for two or more (league 78% and 48%). Guadalajara Chivas's last 50 games had a first-half goal 74% of the time and a second-half goal 78%; Atlante FC's last 50, 64% and 78%. A goal in both halves: 56% (league 57%). Highest-scoring half: second 42%, first 31%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Guadalajara Chivas season stats · Atlante FC season stats · Liga MX table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.