Eredivisie · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 15:45 UK time
CompactStats rates Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with Groningen 51%, the draw 21% and Sparta Rotterdam 28%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | – |
| Both teams to score | 64% | Yes |
| Groningen win | 51% | Pick |
| Draw | 21% | |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 28% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 80% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 86% | |
| Goal in both halves | 69% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 9 | 89% | 67% | 89% |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 89% | 78% | 78% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 80% | 81% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 42% | 44% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 86% | 85% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 60% | 56% |
| Goal in both halves | 69% | 69% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 78% | 92% | 50 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 80% | 82% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 83% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Groningen season stats · Sparta Rotterdam season stats · Eredivisie table and form
League. Eredivisie has had over 2.5 goals in 64% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Groningen 8 of 9 (5 of 5 at home), Sparta Rotterdam 8 of 9 (4 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 71% and 71%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 62% and 61%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 62%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 0% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 59%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.16 (Groningen) v 1.56 (Sparta Rotterdam) give 72%; 30% weight: 63%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.