Copa do Brasil · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 21:30. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Copa do Brasil average is 48%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Gremio at 37%, the draw at 30% and Atletico-MG at 34%, from expected goals of 1.15 and 1.09.
The league sets the starting point. Copa do Brasil has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Gremio have 14 in 31 this season (8 of 16 at home), Atletico-MG 15 in 31 (6 of 15 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 31 and 31 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 46% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.15 for Gremio and 1.09 for Atletico-MG. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 48%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio | 31 | 45% | 19% | 61% |
| Atletico-MG | 31 | 48% | 29% | 48% |
More: Gremio season stats · Atletico-MG season stats · Copa do Brasil fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.