La Liga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 13:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Getafe vs Sevilla (La Liga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 46% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with Getafe 42%, the draw 29% and Sevilla 29%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | – |
| Both teams to score | 52% | Yes |
| Getafe win | 42% | |
| Draw | 29% | Pick |
| Sevilla win | 29% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 83% | |
| Goal in both halves | 53% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 32% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 83% | 82% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 42% | 45% |
| Goal in both halves | 53% | 57% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 47% | 2nd 49% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Getafe season stats · Sevilla season stats · La Liga table and form
League. La Liga has had over 2.5 goals in 51% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Getafe 2 of 9 (0 of 5 at home), Sevilla 6 of 9 (3 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 43% and 55%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 39% and 54%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 47%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 33% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 47%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.26 (Getafe) v 1 (Sevilla) give 39%; 30% weight: 45%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 46%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.