Erovnuli Liga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 13:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Gagra vs Rustavi (Erovnuli Liga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with Gagra 33%, the draw 30% and Rustavi 37%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | Yes |
| Gagra win | 33% | |
| Draw | 30% | Pick |
| Rustavi win | 37% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 81% | |
| Goal in both halves | 53% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | 68% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 33% | 35% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 81% | 83% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 44% | 42% |
| Goal in both halves | 53% | 58% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 43% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 70% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Gagra season stats · Rustavi season stats · Erovnuli Liga table and form
League. Erovnuli Liga has had over 2.5 goals in 51% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Gagra 13 of 30 (6 of 15 at home), Rustavi 12 of 30 (5 of 15 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 47% and 45%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 48% and 45%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 47%.
Head to head. 3 meetings in 3 years, 67% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 48%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.03 (Gagra) v 1.11 (Rustavi) give 36%; 30% weight: 45%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 46%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.