Meistriliiga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 12:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva (Meistriliiga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 70% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with Flora Tallinn 76%, the draw 15% and Trans Narva 9%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | – |
| Both teams to score | 55% | Yes |
| Flora Tallinn win | 76% | Pick |
| Draw | 15% | |
| Trans Narva win | 9% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 82% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 84% | |
| Goal in both halves | 71% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flora Tallinn | 33 | 79% | 42% | 58% |
| Trans Narva | 33 | 67% | 30% | 48% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 82% | 82% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 47% | 46% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 84% | 83% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 47% | 50% |
| Goal in both halves | 71% | 67% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flora Tallinn | 84% | 88% | 50 |
| Trans Narva | 82% | 86% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 77% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Flora Tallinn season stats · Trans Narva season stats · Meistriliiga table and form
League. Meistriliiga has had over 2.5 goals in 67% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Flora Tallinn 26 of 33 (13 of 17 at home), Trans Narva 22 of 33 (12 of 17 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 74% and 67%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 73% and 66%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 69%.
Head to head. 12 meetings in 3 years, 83% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 70%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.72 (Flora Tallinn) v 0.84 (Trans Narva) give 69%; 30% weight: 70%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.