2. Bundesliga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 12:30 UK time
CompactStats rates FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg (2. Bundesliga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with FC St. Pauli 46%, the draw 26% and 1. FC Nürnberg 28%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | – |
| Both teams to score | 58% | Yes |
| FC St. Pauli win | 46% | Pick |
| Draw | 26% | |
| 1. FC Nürnberg win | 28% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 85% | |
| Goal in both halves | 64% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli | 9 | 33% | 22% | 67% |
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 8 | 75% | 50% | 75% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | 72% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 37% | 39% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 85% | 84% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 47% | 47% |
| Goal in both halves | 64% | 61% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli | 76% | 84% | 50 |
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 70% | 90% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 77% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: FC St. Pauli season stats · 1. FC Nürnberg season stats · 2. Bundesliga table and form
League. 2. Bundesliga has had over 2.5 goals in 57% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. FC St. Pauli 3 of 9 (1 of 4 at home), 1. FC Nürnberg 6 of 8 (2 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 51% and 62%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 55% and 56%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 56%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.55 (FC St. Pauli) v 1.15 (1. FC Nürnberg) give 51%; 30% weight: 55%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.