K League 1 · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 07:30 UK time
CompactStats rates FC Seoul vs Incheon United (K League 1, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with FC Seoul 49%, the draw 26% and Incheon United 25%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | – |
| Both teams to score | 54% | Yes |
| FC Seoul win | 49% | Pick |
| Draw | 26% | |
| Incheon United win | 25% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 61% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 47% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Seoul | 33 | 58% | 30% | 55% |
| Incheon United | 33 | 48% | 18% | 58% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 61% | 63% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 28% | 29% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 78% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 46% | 47% |
| Goal in both halves | 47% | 50% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 47% | 2nd 48% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Seoul | 56% | 80% | 50 |
| Incheon United | 60% | 72% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 62% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: FC Seoul season stats · Incheon United season stats · K League 1 table and form
League. K League 1 has had over 2.5 goals in 48% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. FC Seoul 19 of 33 (8 of 16 at home), Incheon United 16 of 33 (8 of 16 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 53% and 48%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 53% and 48%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 50%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 33% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 49%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.59 (FC Seoul) v 1.08 (Incheon United) give 50%; 30% weight: 49%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 50%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.