Eredivisie · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 13:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Excelsior vs Twente (Eredivisie, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 61% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with Excelsior 19%, the draw 22% and Twente 59%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | – |
| Both teams to score | 61% | Yes |
| Excelsior win | 19% | |
| Draw | 22% | |
| Twente win | 59% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 79% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 85% | |
| Goal in both halves | 68% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 79% | 81% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 43% | 44% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 85% | 85% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 57% | 56% |
| Goal in both halves | 68% | 69% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 45% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 83% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Excelsior season stats · Twente season stats · Eredivisie table and form
League. Eredivisie has had over 2.5 goals in 64% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Excelsior 9 of 9 (4 of 4 at home), Twente 5 of 9 (2 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 74% and 62%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 65% and 58%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 62%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 61%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.09 (Excelsior) v 2.05 (Twente) give 61%; 30% weight: 61%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.