La Liga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 17:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Elche vs Valencia (La Liga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 51% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with Elche 40%, the draw 26% and Valencia 34%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | – |
| Both teams to score | 56% | Yes |
| Elche win | 40% | Pick |
| Draw | 26% | |
| Valencia win | 34% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 84% | |
| Goal in both halves | 54% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 32% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 84% | 82% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 48% | 45% |
| Goal in both halves | 54% | 57% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 47% | 2nd 49% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Elche season stats · Valencia season stats · La Liga table and form
League. La Liga has had over 2.5 goals in 51% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Elche 6 of 10 (3 of 4 at home), Valencia 4 of 9 (2 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 54% and 49%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 54% and 47%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 51%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 0% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 48%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.47 (Elche) v 1.34 (Valencia) give 53%; 30% weight: 50%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 51%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.