Serie B · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 21:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Cuiaba vs São Bernardo (Serie B, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with Cuiaba 49%, the draw 28% and São Bernardo 23%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | – |
| Both teams to score | 48% | No |
| Cuiaba win | 49% | Pick |
| Draw | 28% | |
| São Bernardo win | 23% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | |
| Goal in both halves | 46% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba | 34 | 24% | 9% | 32% |
| São Bernardo | 43 | 47% | 23% | 56% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 25% | 28% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | 74% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 33% | 36% |
| Goal in both halves | 46% | 48% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 42% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba | 58% | 70% | 50 |
| São Bernardo | 64% | 78% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Cuiaba season stats · São Bernardo season stats · Serie B table and form
League. Serie B has had over 2.5 goals in 41% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Cuiaba 8 of 34 (3 of 17 at home), São Bernardo 20 of 43 (11 of 21 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 31% and 45%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 32% and 45%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 39%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.43 (Cuiaba) v 0.89 (São Bernardo) give 41%; 30% weight: 39%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 42%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.