Serie A · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 11:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Como vs Venezia (Serie A, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 52% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with Como 69%, the draw 20% and Venezia 12%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | – |
| Both teams to score | 50% | Yes |
| Como win | 69% | Pick |
| Draw | 20% | |
| Venezia win | 12% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 58% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 34% | 29% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 78% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 46% | 42% |
| Goal in both halves | 58% | 53% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 46% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 69% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Como season stats · Venezia season stats · Serie A table and form
League. Serie A has had over 2.5 goals in 48% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Como 4 of 7 (1 of 2 at home), Venezia 3 of 7 (2 of 3 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 50% and 47%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 47% and 52%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 49%.
Head to head. 3 meetings in 3 years, 67% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 50%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.11 (Como) v 0.73 (Venezia) give 54%; 30% weight: 51%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 52%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.