Primera Clausura · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 20:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Cerro Porteno vs Olimpia (Primera Clausura, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with Cerro Porteno 44%, the draw 28% and Olimpia 27%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | – |
| Both teams to score | 50% | Yes |
| Cerro Porteno win | 44% | Pick |
| Draw | 28% | |
| Olimpia win | 27% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 66% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | |
| Goal in both halves | 53% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro Porteno | 36 | 42% | 17% | 44% |
| Olimpia | 36 | 47% | 14% | 47% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 66% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 27% | 28% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 80% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 39% | 43% |
| Goal in both halves | 53% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro Porteno | 66% | 70% | 50 |
| Olimpia | 68% | 82% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 68% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Cerro Porteno season stats · Olimpia season stats · Primera Clausura table and form
League. Primera Clausura has had over 2.5 goals in 43% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Cerro Porteno 15 of 36 (5 of 19 at home), Olimpia 17 of 36 (7 of 18 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 42% and 45%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 42% and 45%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 43%.
Head to head. 10 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 44%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.33 (Cerro Porteno) v 0.99 (Olimpia) give 41%; 30% weight: 43%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 45%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.